by Handedness. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. But as far as I believe, batted-ball distributions arent as noisy as, say, BABIP. Chicago Cubs. The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Cavan Biggio will play half his games in the outfield. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. The team is confident in Jason Heyward. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. News; Wikipedia: . Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted
$8? Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. by Retrosheet. 2023 Pre-Season Projections All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts * as the source of default lineups. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Prior to the . That search reveals the following players. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. Heyward hasnt shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to 28.3 percent; the MLB average is 29-30 percent). Thats just how it goes. But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. If you can sign him without an opt-out, you might be in the rare position of having an 8- or 10-year megadeal where the player is worth his salary every year. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. Massive crying face emoji. Heywards defense and lack of power has the potential to confound, but stripping away the defense, we still see an incredibly valuable player with the potential to maintain or even improve his production. The shift movement had already produced some . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Bill James Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. Throw caution to the wind, even. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Its not surprising. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. FanGraphs Mugs. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. Just ask Jason Heyward. Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Heyward will get paid. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. But the power was largely absent. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. Im not all that mad about it. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. . The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. How much will he be worth? Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. If Heyward had one or two games where he hit everything the other way, that would make this look way different, and thats why its too early to say anything. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He looked like a pitcher.. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors
Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. by Handedness. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries.